LABOUR SHORTAGE AND MIGRATION: REGRESSION MODEL OF THE HUNGARIAN LABOUR MARKET

Humanity has always been on the move. Some people move voluntarily to learn, some for work or economic opportunities, while others migrate out of necessity, in response to climate change, natural disasters or the negative effects of environmental factors. Among the migration phenomena, labour migration plays an important role and is now a major challenge for economic actors worldwide. As a result of economic and social influences and those of globalisation, significant differences in development across Europe have been observed in recent decades, which are constantly being changed in space and time. These processes have also affected the scale of migration. In Hungary, several industrial investments are waiting to be launched, but this requires a sufficient number and quality of workers. Current data show that the domestic human resource is low and that the current labour market is no longer able to fully meet the increased labour demand. Recruiting labour from outside the country has therefore become necessary to keep the economy functioning and maintain, or even increase output. The forecasting and modelling of the labour market has long been the subject of various studies, but no model has yet been developed that can be used as a generally accepted method. The objective of my study is to model the migration processes of the Hungarian labour market using a multivariate linear regression model with different variables. In my research, I collected secondary data based on the databases of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). A multivariate regression model was used to analyse the period 2010-2022. The employment of foreign guest workers is a politically and economically sensitive issue, therefore the study focuses exclusively on the economic context.

XII. évfolyam 2024. Special Issues 2 42-45

DOI: 10.24387/CI.SI.2024.2.8

Cikk megtekinthető: http://controllerinfo.hu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Controller_2024_kulonszam_2-8.pdf

REFERENCES

BORBÉLY-PECZE, T.B. (2024): A hazai munkaerőpiac 2023-ban a KSH adatok fényében (The domestic labour market in 2023 in the light of the data of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office). https://www.munkaugyiszemle.hu/hazai-munkaeropiac- 2023-ban-ksh-adatok-fenyeben

DABASI-HALÁSZ, ZS. LIPTÁK, K. – HORVÁTH, K. (2017): „Különlegesnek lenni.” Középiskolások tanulási célú mobilitását meghatározó attitűdök, motivációk. („Being special”. Attitudes and motivations determining the learning mobility of secondary school students). Tér és Társadalom. 31(4). pp. 53-75. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17649/TET.31.4.2893

GÖDRI, I. (2016): Elvándorlási szándékok – álmok és konkrét tervek között. A migrációs potenciál jellemzői és meghatározó tényezői a 18-40 évesek körében Magyarországon. (Migration intentions – between dreams and concrete plans. Characteristics and determinants of migration potential among 18-40-year-olds in Hungary). KSH Népességtudományi Kutatóintézet Kutatási Jelentések 98.

HÁRS, Á. (2018): Növekvő elvándorlás – lehetőségek, remények, munkaerőpiaci hatások. (Increasing emigration – opportunities, hopes, labour market impacts). In: Társadalmi Riport 2018, pp. 81-105.

HÁRS, Á. (2020): Elvándorlás, visszavándorlás, bevándorlás. Jelenségek és munkaerő-piaci hatások. (Emigration, return migration, immigration). In: Társadalmi Riport 2020, ed. by Tamás Kolosi, Iván Szelényi, György István Tóth, Budapest https://doi.org/10.61501/TRIP.2020.5 https://doi.org/10.61501/TRIP.2020.5

https://demografia.hu/kiadvanyokonline/index.php/kutatasijelentesek/article/view/2699

MÉLYPATAKI, G. – LIPTÁK, K. (2020): Munkajogi és gazdasági kihívások a jövő munkaerőpiacán. (Labour law and economic challenges in the future labour market). International Journal of Engineering and Management Sciences. 5(1). pp.116-130. https://doi.org/10.21791/IJEMS.2020.1.10

RUFF, T. (2022): Magyar fiatalok a koronavírus-járvány idején: Tanulmánykötet a Magyar Ifjúság Kutatás 2020 eredményeiről. (Hungarian youth during the coronavirus epidemic: a booklet on the results of the Hungarian Youth Research 2020). Budapest: Enigma (pp.141-158), http://doi.org/10.35511/978-963-334-430-9-Ruff

SZÉKELYHÍDI, K. (2016): A munkaerőpiac előrejelzésére használt modellek és az előrejelzés lehetőségei.        (Models used to forecast the labour market and forecasting options) Statisztikai Szemle, 94 (3). pp. 300-319. http://doi.org/10.20311/stat2016.03.hu0300 ISSN 0039-0690

YOUNGS, R. – ÜLGEN, S. (2022): The European Union’s Competitive Globalism, Carnegie Europe, February 17, 2022. https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/02/17/european-union-s-competitive- globalism-pub-86329

Internet references

BODNÁR K. – SZABÓ L. T. (2014): A kivándorlás hatása a hazai munkaerőpiacra. (The impact of emigration on the domestic labour market). MNB-tanulmányok 114.
Accessed on 08 December from https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/a-kivandorlas-hatasa-a-hazai-munkaeropiacra.pdf

Magyarországon tartózkodó külföldi állampolgárok, az állampolgárság országa és nem szerint (Foreign citizens residing in Hungary, by country of citizenship and gender) Accessed on 01 May 2024 from https://www.ksh.hu/stadat_files/nep/hu/nep0023.html   

A kivándorló magyar állampolgárok célországok és nemek szerint (Hungarian emigrants by destination country and gender) Accessed on 01 May 2024 from https://www.ksh.hu/stadat_files/nep/hu/nep0031.html

A népesség száma és átlagos életkora nem szerint (Number and average age of the population by gender) Accessed on 01 May 2024 from https://www.ksh.hu/stadat_files/nep/hu/nep0002.html